You mention this tangentially but my impression is that climate is huge for Malawi: basically every year they have a "lean season" due to drought or flooding. Is that in the models, or are my impressions overblown?
You're right that climate exposure is a meaningful factor given Malawi grows rain-fed maize, has recurring drought, and has had recent cyclones (Idai, Ana, Freddy). The comparative case for it being the binding constraint is a bit weak, though. Other SSA countries face similar or worse climate stress and have higher yields, e.g., Ethiopia, or haven't but have grown faster anyway e.g., Mozambique. I also mentioned above that the empirical literature on landlocked + tropical penalties puts the combined drag at about 1-1.5% of annual growth, which I think is a useful datapoint here.
The interesting version of the climate point is that the political settlement amplifies Malawi's climate vulnerability. Customary land tenure blocks consolidation, which would enable irrigation investment at scale (<5% the arable land is irrigated), for example, and the maize self-sufficiency policy and FISP keep farmers growing a climate-vulnerable staple rather than drought-resistant alternatives like sorghum, or higher-value crops with different risk profiles.
So I'd say climate is a factor, but not binding in and of itself and its effects are largely downstream of the political settlement rather than a substitute for it.
You mention this tangentially but my impression is that climate is huge for Malawi: basically every year they have a "lean season" due to drought or flooding. Is that in the models, or are my impressions overblown?
You're right that climate exposure is a meaningful factor given Malawi grows rain-fed maize, has recurring drought, and has had recent cyclones (Idai, Ana, Freddy). The comparative case for it being the binding constraint is a bit weak, though. Other SSA countries face similar or worse climate stress and have higher yields, e.g., Ethiopia, or haven't but have grown faster anyway e.g., Mozambique. I also mentioned above that the empirical literature on landlocked + tropical penalties puts the combined drag at about 1-1.5% of annual growth, which I think is a useful datapoint here.
The interesting version of the climate point is that the political settlement amplifies Malawi's climate vulnerability. Customary land tenure blocks consolidation, which would enable irrigation investment at scale (<5% the arable land is irrigated), for example, and the maize self-sufficiency policy and FISP keep farmers growing a climate-vulnerable staple rather than drought-resistant alternatives like sorghum, or higher-value crops with different risk profiles.
So I'd say climate is a factor, but not binding in and of itself and its effects are largely downstream of the political settlement rather than a substitute for it.